Is Hickory Hollow Mall Ready to Close Its Doors for Good?

Malls have a natural lifespan, as population centers shift, architecture evolves, and shopping habits change. But a sharp recession is clearly accelerating the demise of vulnerable retailers--and some of the shopping centers they inhabit. Plunging sales are one obvious reason. Many retailers are also saddled with heavy debt taken on in recent years to fund aggressive growth. And the credit crunch has made cash scarce for firms that need it most.

To gauge which malls are in trouble, U.S. News analyzed data from Green Street Advisors, an investment research firm in Newport Beach, Calif., that specializes in publicly owned real estate companies. Their data includes occupancy rates, sales per square foot, and quality grades for about 650 of America's biggest shopping centers. The average property in the data set has sales of about $420 per square foot and an occupancy rate of 92 percent, good for an A- grade.

The malls at the bottom of the list earn grades of C- or D, with falling sales at many stores and a high proportion of discount retailers that tend to draw the least lucrative consumers. As a rule of thumb, malls with sales of $250 per square foot or lower are struggling. "It's hard for many retailers to be profitable at $250," says Jim Sullivan of Green Street. And nine out of 10 malls at the bottom of Green Street's list have sales at or below that threshold.

Included in the bottom 10:

Hickory Hollow Mall, Nashville, Tenn. (Occupancy rate of 82 percent; Sales per square foot: $187). Dillard's has left, and other departed tenants include Linens 'N Things and Steve & Barry's, two of the biggest casualties of the recession. Two of four anchor slots are vacant, and the theater recently switched from first-run movies to late-run discount flicks. With a lack of retailers, the mall may convert some of its space to office use. One new tenant: the local police, who recently opened a recruiting station at the mall.